Today as Russia missiles hit Ukrainian capital in the escalating invasion of that sovereign nation, what the US, UK and their allies have so far been able to do are based on economic sanctions without any military reprisals. My humble question is “What lessons are there for Nigeria (pro-Nigeria defenders and pro-Secession agitators) and the global community?
Please, kindly permit me to recall that in several articles I wrote and posted a while ago, I hinted on the role of national interest as a spur or propelling factor for any advanced nation to interfere in the issues that border on the sovereignty of other nations.Nevertheless, in this ongoing Russia-Ukraine scenario, one can argue that the need to avoid a 3rd World War could be deterring the BIG POWERS from direct military intervention. I stand to be corrected!
Otherwise, is it that the US and other Big Power are scared of the direct and disastrous (nuclear and chemical weapons of war) consequences of intervening to defend Ukraine against unnecessary Russian invasion driven by Shylock Vladimir Putin? In any of the hypothetical reasons above, your intelligent guess or informed postulation is as good as mine. It’s what it is: fear of reality!!
However, the most important thing that stands out for me is lesson for Nigeria. What is the possibility of direct intervention in Nigeria by the United Nations, the US, the UK and others that either the pro-Nigeria defenders or pro-Biafra agitators have often called to stand for them? Please let’s be realistic and exercise restraints required in orderly and brotherly conversation here.
Once again, as I categorically stated in my earlier post not long ago, NATIONAL INTEREST and RESPECT FOR SOVEREIGNTY OF NATIONS play dominant role in any Big Power interfering in the internal political crises of another country, especially a developing nation. As I mentioned earlier, if US moves to support the cause of freedom, justice and equity in Nigeria’s geopolitical quagmire (in spite of the invitation and cry of pro-secession agitators), on whose side will either the US or the UK be? Your guess is as good as mine. Again, reality wins over idealism in real power tussle or geopolitics!
Most of all, I’m quite sure that each of these great nations (the UK or the UK, etc.) will ponder and consider these facts and ask “WHICH OF THEIR NATIONAL INTERESTS are immediately at risk or at stake in the Nigerian crises?”
Secondly, they will consider the positions of their competitors (or outright adversaries) including Russia, China & North Korea in Nigeria. Not just the POSITIONS OF THEIR OPPONENTS BUT ALSO THEIR PROPENSITY TO PERSONALISE THE THIRD PARTY’S (Nigeria’s) CRISES. That’s dualizing the warfare by going after each other’s national interests where that could be found outside of Nigeria, while at the same time attacking their opponents’ IT installations, architectural structures and economic interests in Nigeria.
This last scenario of Russia personalizing and diverting its aggression against Ukraine towards the US or any other big power is what that’s in the interim discouraging and deterring any of the world’s power from using military assaults to haunt and halt Russia from further destruction of lives and property associated with its invasion of sovereign Ukraine.
Therefore, in any event of another hypothetical Nigerian civil war imaginarily caused by pro-secession agitators (presumably before or during or after the 2023 presidential election); but God forbids and it won’t happen; the US, the UK and the UN will be thinking twice before taking sides in the hypothetical war in Nigeria. It’s important, therefore, for developing nations, including Nigeria, dependent or banking on Western support to learn some lessons from the on-going Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This is because, by the end of the day when the chips are down, it’s easier said than done.
Otherwise, how much will only economic sanctions help Ukrainian forces and citizens who are daily losing so many lives and so much property? In fact, except that soon the humanitarian crises will beckon on the United Nations Commission for Refugees to assist here and there as I mentioned in my earlier post a while ago, what are the short-run or medium-range or long-term benefits for common Ukrainian citizens with the economic sanctions by some world leaders? Right here, again, your guess is as good as mine! Though I stand to be corrected and I wholeheartedly welcome all unbiased opinions, permit me to conclude by asserting that “to be forewarned is to be forearmed.” So, help us dear Lord God
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Word Bank International Magazine